Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 0.048467 0.055071 0.062450 0.071342 0.081819 0.093829 0.108727
2025-12-21 0.036120 0.043655 0.052739 0.064608 0.079878 0.099096 0.125489
2025-12-28 0.029936 0.038210 0.048883 0.063908 0.084918 0.113884 0.157979
2026-01-04 0.025709 0.034495 0.046567 0.064807 0.092481 0.134303 0.205206
2026-01-11 0.022043 0.030928 0.043851 0.064702 0.098887 0.155416 0.262342
2026-01-18 0.019073 0.027871 0.041358 0.064505 0.105402 0.179352 0.335964
2026-01-25 0.016308 0.024686 0.038133 0.062521 0.108661 0.199413 0.414036
2026-02-01 0.013861 0.021630 0.034609 0.059328 0.109082 0.214903 0.493262
2026-02-08 0.012332 0.019857 0.032958 0.059234 0.115766 0.246862 0.636547
2026-02-15 0.011077 0.018364 0.031557 0.059356 0.123199 0.284695 0.830402
2026-02-22 0.010102 0.017226 0.030624 0.060269 0.132987 0.334340 1.116419
2026-03-01 0.009244 0.016179 0.029693 0.061013 0.142904 0.391039 1.505844
2026-03-08 0.008279 0.014820 0.027964 0.059701 0.147586 0.437033 1.934577
2026-03-15 0.007186 0.013069 0.025155 0.055211 0.142020 0.446373 2.204773
2026-03-22 0.006610 0.012285 0.024299 0.055422 0.150798 0.516738 3.013790
2026-03-29 0.006187 0.011759 0.023932 0.056856 0.164393 0.620442 4.406030
2026-04-05 0.005748 0.011144 0.023262 0.057333 0.175317 0.725340 6.287168
2026-04-12 0.005349 0.010562 0.022580 0.057636 0.186099 0.844258 9.055225
2026-04-19 0.004908 0.009835 0.021431 0.056287 0.190111 0.932875 12.135077
2026-04-26 0.004461 0.009043 0.020010 0.053773 0.188423 0.987324 15.228705
2026-05-03 0.004185 0.008616 0.019460 0.053938 0.198763 1.142187 22.730159
2026-05-10 0.003943 0.008240 0.018985 0.054255 0.210303 1.329711 35.194757
2026-05-17 0.003749 0.007958 0.018720 0.055250 0.226101 1.589411 59.428999